CS Clean sheets kept at home/away based on this week's fixture Opp FTS Number of times this week's opponent has failed to score at home/away GPG Conceded Predicted goals conceded this week based on a team and their opponent's performance this season Opp CS Clean sheets kept at home/away by a team's opponent GPG Scored Predicted goals scored this week based on a team and their opponent's performance this season
So what does this mean for individual players? Let's look at how the data suggests the fantasy stars will do from here on in: Each bar represents the players' xPct over the final four gameweeks.
I won't get into particulars of captain picks etc now as that's something for next week, but the above will hopefully give some initial guidance when making any transfers this week. I'll add some of my thoughts tomorrow.
Love the look of the 4-weeks xPct chart, and wonder whether the recently popular HBA could be in the chart if his first half of the season playtime was not limited.
By the way, saw a mistake in the first 2 tables; Arsenal is playing Stoke isnit?
Cisse looks to be at the moment in the same place that Sigurdsson was a few weeks ago in terms of ratings/predictions - if the season wasn't about to end you would expect his stats to drop soon.
For what it's worth, here are my player ratings for the rest of the season. They are worked out in a not dissimilar way from Chris', although obviously not quite the same:-
@Blitzoboard as you can see, HBA comes out quite well in those. Obviously the ratings for those with more minutes are less suspect.
I'm planning to take a couple of hits to get in DGW players (probably Dempsey in for 35), as I am going for the highest possible ranking and willing to take a punt for some explosive potential..
As the season ticks on, we're starting to get a bit of data to work with, albeit sometimes in small samples. This season I am not working with a relatively complex player model but am really interested in trying to "play the fixtures" as much as I can. A couple of sources of frustration, therefore, have been as below: 1. Sites which provide the difficulty of fixtures often seem a bit simplistic. For example, the Premier League site shows Wolves as an average "3-rated" opponent, both at home and away yet the reality is more complicated. While at home they have been very solid defensively, with an Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) of just 4.71 in five games, which ranks third best, yet on their travels they have surrendered 7.94 xGC, which is the third worst . Even more confusing is that most sites ( though not all ) don't distinguish between attacking and defensive fixtures, so facing Leeds at home is presented as an easy "2-rated" fixture when in reali
We talked about this earlier in the season, but with a couple more games in the bag, I've updated the viz which attempts to help you choose your defenders. The "All Players" tab should in theory help you do this coming with a blank slate, but the r aison d'etre for the viz is to help you choose between players in the same side, once you've decided that, for example, you want a City defender. The viz can be found linked from the main menu , and here and should be opened separately to best read this piece. A few notes as of GW5 below. Arsenal I'm not sure how much value there is with this defense right now, but if you are planning to play the fixtures and take a chance with one of Emery's men, this would suggest it should be Mustafi rather than the 10% owner Bellerin who you should target. Bournemouth Cook is the man here for now, though if a clear winner emerges from the developing Daniels vs Rico battle then one of those players could topple him b
Happy holidays everyone; it's been a while. For those not on Twitter, I was away in Costa Rica over the break without much - if any - internet access hence the lack of posts around these electronic pages. Well, actually, that's only the main reason, not the only one. In truth I've become a bit disillusioned with the fantasy game the past couple of months, partly due to my other commitments which make copying data at 2am somewhat less appealing, partly due to a lack of excitement in this year's game and finally due to the constant frustration I have with today's internet culture. This blog is a labour of love and aside from the small amount of money I made from the pre-season guide many of you graciously purchased, I don't get much out of this beyond the enjoyment of interacting with readers and hopefully helping a few of you to gain a couple of extra fantasy points every now and then. While some of that enjoyment remains, I feel it has waned over time and th
Comments
Love the look of the 4-weeks xPct chart, and wonder whether the recently popular HBA could be in the chart if his first half of the season playtime was not limited.
By the way, saw a mistake in the first 2 tables; Arsenal is playing Stoke isnit?
Cisse looks to be at the moment in the same place that Sigurdsson was a few weeks ago in terms of ratings/predictions - if the season wasn't about to end you would expect his stats to drop soon.
For what it's worth, here are my player ratings for the rest of the season. They are worked out in a not dissimilar way from Chris', although obviously not quite the same:-
name pred_pts price minutes
Cisse 39.29 7.8 678
Dempsey 34.28 9.4 2964
Lampard 32.15 11.0 2145
Aguero 31.61 11.1 2216
Ben Arfa 30.66 6.0 1145
Van der Vaart 30.43 9.5 1912
Mata 28.64 9.5 2388
Baines 28.17 7.9 2880
Jelavic 27.55 5.8 512
Sigurdsson 27.41 5.7 1138
Eagles 26.74 5.1 1801
Sturridge 26.35 6.6 1869
Petrov 26.21 5.1 2036
Pienaar 26.04 7.0 811
Gerrard 26.02 9.5 1134
Crouch 25.88 6.2 2348
Ba 24.99 7.1 2289
Cahill 24.69 5.5 2402
Suarez 24.5 9.2 2190
Adebayor 24.24 9.1 2467
Miyaichi 24.24 4.9 539
Dzeko 23.87 7.8 1466
Van Persie 23.49 13.5 2971
(Apologies if the formatting looks aweful!)
@Blitzoboard as you can see, HBA comes out quite well in those. Obviously the ratings for those with more minutes are less suspect.
I'm planning to take a couple of hits to get in DGW players (probably Dempsey in for 35), as I am going for the highest possible ranking and willing to take a punt for some explosive potential..
Or leave it with Aguero.
Or Dempsey.
Thoughts?